How You Can Learn to Predict Mortgage Rate

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Many people, particularly, first-home buyers, tend to shop around for the cheapest mortgage rate that they see not knowing, or understanding, that these rates dip and fall. If you get an understanding of how mortgage rates work, you will be in a far better position to land one that really works for you and may even be cheaper than the one you're ready to commit to, say, today.

Here's how mortgage rates work.

The firs thing you should know about these rates is that they are unpredictable. They change. A high rate today may be low tomorrow. At one time, these rates were more stable. They were set by the bank. But since the 1950s, Wall Street took over and adjusted them according to supply and demand. Or more accurately, Wall Street linked them to bonds. So that when bonds - that are bought and sold on Wall Street - drop, mortgage rates do, too.

How can I know today's bonds rates?

It sounds simple: let's keep up with the prices of bonds and we'll know when to shop for our mortgage. Unfortunately, only Wall Street has access to this knowledge (called "mortgage-Reverse mortgage calculator  securities" (MBS) data). And they pay tens of thousands of dollars for access to it in real-time.

Here's how you can make an educated guess:

Calculate according to, what's called, the Thirty-year mortgage rates.

These are the events that lower rates in any given 30 years:

Falling inflation rates, because low inflation increases demand for mortgage bonds
Weaker-than-expected economic data, because a weak economy increases demand for mortgage bonds
War, disaster and calamity, because "uncertainty" increases demand for mortgage bonds

Conversely, rising inflation rates; stronger-than-expected economic data; and the "calming down" of a geopolitical situation tend to elevate rates.

The most common mortgages and mortgage rates

You'll also find that mortgages vary according to the level of your credit rating. The higher your credit score, the more likely you are to win a lower mortgage rate.

Mortgage rates also vary by loan type.

There are four main loan types each of which has a different level of interest. In each case, this level of interest hinges on mortgage-secured bonds. The four loan types together make up 90 percent of mortgage loans doled out to US consumers.